The summer market across London and St. Thomas is shaping up to offer something we haven't seen in quite some time: opportunity. While headlines continue to focus on interest rates, what's happening locally tells a more nuanced story. Borrowing costs have stabilized, inventory has improved in many neighbourhoods, and competition — while still present — is far less intense than the peak market years. For buyers who are prepared, this creates a window worth paying attention to.

Today's market is a different animal entirely. Inventory has climbed back toward more historically normal levels, giving buyers room to actually think through a purchase — to get a home inspection, negotiate on price or closing terms, and walk away from a property that doesn't check enough boxes without feeling like they're missing their only chance. That shift in leverage is the core of why this summer matters for buyers who've been waiting for things to settle down.

What the Latest Numbers Are Showing

According to the most recent data from the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® (LSTAR), May brought 776 home sales across the region — up 8.8% from May 2025 and 138 more units than April. The average sale price rose to $662,292, up from $618,665 in April. New listings also picked up, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio to 42.8%, up from 36% the month before. According to CREA, anything below 45% still points to a buyers' market, so while activity is clearly heating up heading into summer, conditions overall remain in the buyer's favour.

These numbers point to a market that is no longer overheated, but not stagnant either. Instead, we're seeing more balanced conditions — giving buyers time to think, compare options, and negotiate more confidently.

It's also worth noting that the LSTAR region doesn't move as one single market. Property type makes a real difference in how quickly homes sell and how much leverage buyers have. As of the first quarter of 2026, single-detached homes had roughly 4.1 months of inventory and a median of 26 days on market — still the fastest-moving segment. Townhouses had about 6.5 months of inventory and a median of 36 days on market, while apartments and condos sat at roughly 7.2 months of inventory with a median of 43.5 days on market. In practical terms, that means a buyer focused on detached homes is operating in a noticeably tighter market than someone open to a townhome or condo, where there's considerably more breathing room to negotiate on price, closing date, or included items.

Why Waiting May Not Be the Advantage It Seems

A common question right now is whether it's better to wait for lower interest rates. While that instinct makes sense, there's a trade-off. The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% on June 10, 2026 — its fifth consecutive hold — and most economists expect rates to stay roughly in this range through the rest of the year. Major bank forecasts are mixed on what comes next: some expect the rate to hold near 2.25% through 2027, while others see modest increases if inflation pressures persist. Either way, a return to the sharp rate cuts of 2024 and 2025 doesn't appear to be on the table in the near term.

Here's the trade-off worth thinking through. If and when rates do decline meaningfully, a large pool of buyers who've been waiting on the sidelines is expected to re-enter the market quickly — and many of them will be chasing the same homes at the same time. Increased demand of that kind tends to put upward pressure on prices and can reintroduce the kind of competitive bidding situations we saw a few years ago.

In contrast, today's environment offers:

• More selection in certain price ranges, particularly townhomes and condos
• Greater negotiating room, with townhomes averaging 36 days on market and apartments averaging 43.5 days
• Less pressure to make rushed decisions, which means more time for inspections, financing conditions, and proper due diligence
• The ability to negotiate on price, closing date, or included items — leverage that tends to disappear once competition heats back up

For many buyers, especially first-time and move-up purchasers, this combination can be more valuable than a slightly lower rate. A modest difference in rate — say a quarter or half a percentage point — typically translates to a relatively small change in monthly payment on a mortgage in the $400,000–$500,000 range, often under $100 a month. The ability to actually negotiate the purchase price, or to buy without rushing into a bidding war, can easily outweigh that difference over the life of the mortgage.

What It Actually Costs: The $499,000 Sweet Spot

A lot of buyers gravitate toward the $499,000 price point because it sits right at the edge of several mortgage stress-test thresholds and still lands within reach of many move-up and first-time buyers in this market. It's also a price point where, depending on the neighbourhood, you can realistically choose between a smaller detached home further from the core, a townhome in a newer subdivision, or a larger condo — giving buyers more flexibility in how they spend their budget. Here's roughly what financing a home at this price looks like at today's rates, assuming a 5-year fixed mortgage around 4.5% and a 25-year amortization.

*Estimates only, based on a 4.5% 5-year fixed rate and 25-year amortization. Excludes property tax, utilities, and insurance. CMHC premiums are added to the mortgage balance for down payments under 20%. Actual rates and qualification depend on lender, credit profile, and the mortgage stress test — speak with a mortgage professional for figures specific to your situation.

A few things are worth keeping in mind when looking at numbers like these. First, the gap between a 5% down payment and a 20% down payment is roughly $485 a month in this example — a meaningful amount, but for many buyers the larger barrier is simply saving up the additional $75,000 needed to bridge that gap, not the monthly payment difference itself. Second, fixed and variable rates currently sit fairly close together, with the Bank of Canada's policy rate at 2.25% translating to a prime rate of 4.45%, so a 5-year fixed offers payment certainty without much of a premium right now. Finally, the mortgage stress test requires buyers to qualify at a rate higher than their contract rate, which is why getting a pre-approval early matters — it tells you what purchase price you can comfortably qualify for before you start shopping.

At $499K, buyers are often choosing between a smaller detached home further from the core, a townhome in a newer subdivision, or a larger condo — and with townhome and apartment inventory sitting higher than detached inventory, that's exactly where the extra negotiating room tends to show up. A buyer with some flexibility on property type may find that a townhome at this price point comes with more room to negotiate on closing costs, included appliances, or even price itself, compared to a detached home in the same range.

Neighbourhood Price Trends Worth Watching

Where you shop matters just as much as when. Recent LSTAR data shows some pockets of the region moving faster than others — particularly outside London's core, where affordability is drawing renewed attention.

London East stands out as the most accessible entry point into the London market by a wide margin, with average prices roughly $200,000 below London South. For buyers prioritizing affordability over proximity to the city's southern amenities, this gap represents a substantial difference in either purchasing power or monthly carrying costs. St. Thomas continues to offer meaningful savings compared to London South as well, with prices easing slightly month over month — a reminder that this is still one of the more accessible options in the region for buyers wanting space and value without straying too far from the city.

Strathroy-Caradoc's move from $656,869 down to $600,930 is a useful illustration of how average prices can swing from month to month based on the mix of homes that happen to sell, rather than a clear shift in underlying values. April's spike was likely driven by a few larger or higher-end sales, and May's pullback brings the area closer to its recent norm. This is one reason working with a local REALTOR® matters — we can help you look past headline numbers to understand what's actually happening on specific streets or in specific subdivisions that interest you.

Common Questions We're Hearing Right Now

Is this really a buyer's market?

By the numbers, yes — a sales-to-new listings ratio of 42.8% is below CREA's 45% threshold for buyer's market conditions. But "buyer's market" doesn't mean every home is sitting unsold or that sellers are desperate. It means buyers generally have more choice and more time, and that well-priced, well-presented homes still attract serious interest. The advantage shows up most in negotiating room — on price, conditions, and closing flexibility — rather than in a complete absence of competition.

Should I wait until fall, when more listings typically come on the market?

Fall often does bring a fresh wave of listings, but it also tends to bring more buyers back from summer vacations and a renewed sense of urgency before the holidays. Whether waiting helps you depends heavily on what you're looking for — in segments with higher inventory, like townhomes and condos, the calendar matters less than in the detached segment, where good listings can move quickly even in a buyer-friendly overall market.

What if I'm selling and buying at the same time?

This is where the current market actually works in many sellers' favour, even with buyer-friendly overall conditions. With sales activity up 8.8% year-over-year and prices trending upward in most areas, sellers aren't necessarily facing a weak market — they're facing a market where buyers take a bit more time to decide. For move-up buyers, that often means it's easier to find your next home without rushing, while still achieving a reasonable price on the home you're selling.

What Prepared Buyers Are Doing Differently

The buyers finding success right now aren't necessarily the ones trying to time the market perfectly — they're the ones getting organized and staying flexible. That includes reviewing and tightening their monthly budget, securing a mortgage pre-approval or rate hold, staying open to different neighbourhoods or property types, and acting decisively when the right home appears. Preparation is what turns a "good market" into a real opportunity.

In practice, this often looks like having a short conversation with a mortgage professional before you've even started looking at listings, so you know your realistic price range and what your monthly payment will feel like at different down payment levels. It also means being honest about which features are genuinely non-negotiable versus nice-to-haves — a buyer open to a townhome instead of insisting on detached, or to London East instead of only London South, simply has more options to work with. And it means having your paperwork in order so that when the right property comes along, you're ready to move.

The Bottom Line

This summer may not feel dramatic — but that's exactly what makes it important. A quieter, more balanced market often creates the best conditions for thoughtful, strategic purchases. Inventory has improved from the historic lows of recent years, rates have held steady for five consecutive Bank of Canada decisions, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio still points to conditions that favour buyers — even as sales activity picks up heading into summer. For buyers in London and St. Thomas who are ready to move forward, this combination of stability and selection could be the window that makes the difference.

Of course, every buyer's situation is different, and the numbers in this post are a starting point for a conversation, not a substitute for one.

If you've been waiting for the right moment, this might be it. Reach out to The Siemens Home Team — we'll sit down with you, walk through what these numbers mean for your specific budget and target neighbourhoods, and help you put together a plan that makes sense for your timeline.