Ask most Canadians how they feel about the housing market and the answer is pretty consistent: overpriced, unfair, and out of reach — especially for first-time buyers. That national anxiety is real and, in many parts of the country, entirely justified.

But here in London, St. Thomas, and Strathroy, the picture is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. Yes, affordability is still a challenge. But 2026 has also brought something buyers in this region haven't seen in years: genuine leverage. More homes, more negotiating room, and conditions on offers that were nearly impossible to get through the door just two years ago.

If you're thinking about buying or selling in Southwestern Ontario this year, this is the market update you need to read. Or if you'd rather hear it from us directly — hit play below.

The National Mood vs. the Local Reality

A June 2026 survey from Real Estate Magazine found that most Canadians still want to own a home — they just don't believe they can afford one. That tension, between desire and perceived accessibility, is shaping buyer behaviour from coast to coast.

What's interesting about that same research is the follow-up finding: three-quarters of recent Canadian homebuyers say they don't regret their decision, despite the affordability pressures they faced. Once people are in, they're glad they went for it.

Locally, the data tells a story that national averages obscure. According to the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® (LSTAR), 776 homes sold across the region in May 2026 — up 8.8% year-over-year and the strongest month of the year so far. The LSTAR composite average sales price in May was $662,292. Within London, East London came in at $476,844, making it one of the most accessible entry points in the region, while South London averaged $677,226. St. Thomas sat at $568,008 and Strathroy-Caradoc at $735,900. All three communities continue to offer value that's hard to find elsewhere in the province.

Source: LSTAR MLS® Statistics, May 2026. HPI Benchmark reflects a typical home; average price reflects all sales.

Each of these markets is doing something a little different, and understanding the distinctions matters whether you're buying or selling.

Six Things Buyers and Sellers Are Talking About Right Now

1. The Market Is Shifting — and Moving in the Right Direction

The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in May 2026 was 42.8%, up from 36% in April. According to CREA, a ratio between 45% and 65% indicates a balanced market — so we're just below that threshold, but trending upward steadily. Inventory has also begun to stabilize, sitting at 4.3 months in May, down from 5 months in April and from 4.5 months at the same point in 2025.

What this means in plain terms: buyers still have more choice than they've had in years, and the frantic pace of 2021–2022 is gone. But the market is actively recovering, with month-over-month gains in sales every single month since January. If you're waiting for conditions to improve further before you buy, the data suggests the window is already narrowing.

2. Conditions on Offers Are Back

This is a bigger deal than it might sound. During the pandemic years, buyers were routinely skipping home inspections, waiving financing conditions, and offering blind just to have a shot at a property. That era is over in this market. Conditions that were nearly impossible to get accepted two years ago — home inspections, financing clauses, even offers conditional on selling your current home — are being accepted again. For buyers, this is a meaningful protection that simply wasn't available for a long time.

3. East London Is the Affordability Sweet Spot

For buyers working within a tighter budget, London East stands out clearly. With an average price of $476,844 in May and an HPI benchmark of $445,400, it's the most accessible area in the LSTAR region — and it offers genuine value, not just low price tags. Townhomes, condos, and smaller detached homes in this area give first-time buyers a realistic entry point without sacrificing livability.

London South, at a $677,226 average, appeals to buyers who want convenience and established neighbourhoods. And if you're open to more space and a quieter pace, Strathroy-Caradoc is worth a serious look — with an HPI benchmark of $735,900 and an average sale price of $600,930, it offers a different kind of value for buyers prioritizing space and community feel.

4. Sales Are Growing — 776 Homes Sold in May Alone

One thing worth keeping in perspective: this is not a stalled market. LSTAR recorded 776 home sales in May 2026 — up 8.8% year-over-year and 138 more units than April. The LSTAR Chair described it as "right on par with the last five years." The regional composite average price rose to $662,292 in May, up from $618,665 in April. Properties priced accurately are still moving. The pace has normalized — it's just no longer the five-day bidding war situation buyers came to dread.

5. Detached Homes Have the Strongest Demand

If you're looking at the competition landscape, single-detached homes are still where buyer interest is most concentrated. That doesn't mean you should avoid them — it just means being strategic. Townhomes and semi-detached properties continue to offer excellent value with less competition, and new construction in this category is actively expanding your options.

6. Mortgage Rates Are Coming Down

As of mid-June 2026, the lowest available five-year fixed rate for London buyers sits at 4.09%. That's meaningfully better than where rates were a year or two ago, and the direction of travel continues to improve. Pre-approval matters here — knowing exactly what you're qualified for puts you in a position to move quickly when the right home appears, without scrambling at the last minute.

Buying in 2026: What We'd Tell Each Type of Buyer

First-Time Buyers

London East is your starting point. With an average price of $476,844 and an HPI benchmark of $445,400, it's the most realistic entry into homeownership in this region. Inventory is still elevated, conditions are back on offers, and prices have come off their peak. Don't let the national affordability narrative convince you there's no path in — locally, there is.

Move-Up Buyers

If you're looking for something larger — a detached home with more space for a growing family — the $600K–$900K range is where you have genuine room to negotiate. Sellers in this segment are adjusting to the new reality, which means your offer carries weight that it simply didn't a few years ago. Strathroy-Caradoc is particularly worth a look if you want more land and a quieter setting without giving up convenience.

Retirees and Downsizers

Inventory levels work in your favour right now. Whether you're looking for a bungalow, a condo, or a townhome, having more to choose from means you don't have to settle. Take your time, be selective, and let the market work for you rather than against you.

What June Is Telling Us Right Now

The first three weeks of June add another layer to the picture — and they point to a market that's still very much in motion. Sales have climbed steadily week over week, from 138 in Week 1 to 154 in Week 2 to 160 in Week 3, a 16% increase over just three weeks. That's buyers actively engaging, not sitting on the sidelines.

At the same time, inventory has continued to build — from 3,201 active listings in Week 1 to 3,307 by Week 3. Listings are being added faster than they're being absorbed, which means buyers are still operating in an environment with real selection. The absorption rate has improved slightly each week (4.3%, 4.7%, 4.8%), but supply growth is keeping pace.

Source: London-area weekly market data, June 2026 (Weeks 1–3).

Days on market have settled around 40 days — a meaningful shift from the spring pace, but not a sign of distress. Buyers are taking more time to make decisions, which is entirely rational when there's more to choose from. The week-to-week price swings (from $601K to $633K and back to $596K) are more a reflection of the mix of properties selling in any given week than a true signal about values — Week 2 likely had more higher-end sales close, while Week 3 skewed toward entry-level and mid-range homes.

Selling in 2026: A Clear-Eyed Approach

The June data makes one thing clear for sellers: buyers are active and motivated — but they have options. With over 3,300 active listings in the market and homes averaging 40 days to sell, a property that isn't priced to reflect what's actually selling right now will get passed over in favour of one that is.

Sellers who are anchored to what their home might have fetched in 2021 or 2022 are going to find this market frustrating. The reset has happened. The good news is that homes priced competitively based on current data are still moving — the market isn't frozen, it's just more discerning. A well-priced, well-presented home in this environment has every reason to sell.

What actually works right now:

• Price based on what has sold in the last 60 days — not six months ago, and certainly not two years ago
• Accept that subject-to offers are the new normal, not a weakness in the buyer's position
• Present the home well — with 3,300+ listings competing for attention, first impressions matter more than ever
• Build in realistic expectations: homes are averaging around 40 days to sell in June; if yours is sitting longer, pricing is the most likely reason

The sellers finding success right now are the ones who've aligned their expectations with today's data — not yesterday's emotions. It's that straightforward.

Action Steps: What to Do Next

If You're Buying

1. Get pre-approved now — before you fall in love with a listing
2. Clarify your priorities: location, size, type of home, and non-negotiables
3. Target London East if affordability is the primary driver — benchmark sits at $445,400
4. Use your conditions — inspections and financing clauses are your friends right now
5. Work with someone who knows this specific market, not just the provincial average

If You're Selling

1. Pull the most recent comparable sales — the last 60 days, not last year
2. Price for the market that exists, not the one you remember
3. Be prepared for subject-to offers and build flexibility into your expectations
4. Invest in presentation: professional photos and a clean, decluttered showing go a long way
5. Set realistic timeline expectations — homes are averaging around 40 days to sell in June; price right from day one rather than chasing the market down

The Bottom Line

The national conversation about housing affordability is real, and it's not going away. But London, St. Thomas, and Strathroy aren't the national average. They're a mid-sized Southwestern Ontario market with a composite HPI benchmark of $570,000 — well below Toronto, Mississauga, Hamilton, and virtually every other major Ontario market. And with sales rising every month since January, inventory starting to stabilize, and mortgage rates improving, the conditions are better than they've been in several years.

That doesn't mean it's effortless. It means it's possible — with the right information, the right pricing, and the right guidance.

Whether you're buying your first home, moving up, downsizing, or trying to figure out the right time to list, we're here to help you make sense of what's actually happening in this market — not what the headlines say.