If inventory is up, why doesn't every buyer benefit equally?

July's numbers show a region with more room than it's had in years: 4.9 months of inventory and 3,367 active listings across LSTAR's coverage area — up 3.5% from last July and up nearly 25% from two years ago — with the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate at 2.25% since last October. On paper, that reads like a strong buyer's market.

In practice, it doesn't work that way for everyone. Two buyers shopping in the same price range, in the same month, can end up in completely different negotiating positions — one writing an offer with real room to work, the other in a multiple-offer situation. The overall inventory number tells you the region's temperature. It doesn't tell you what's happening with the specific home you're looking at.

The overlooked leverage zone: stale or overpriced listings

The most reliable source of buyer leverage isn't a property type or a neighbourhood — it's a listing's own history. Regardless of what the broader market is doing, watch for homes that:

• Have been active for 30 or more days
• Have already had a price reduction
• Are priced above what comparable homes nearby have actually sold for
• Need cosmetic work or have an awkward layout that's limiting buyer interest — think a dated kitchen or old flooring, not anything structural
• Have a seller working toward a specific closing timeline — an accepted offer on another home, a job relocation, or another life change driving the deadline

That 30-day mark isn't arbitrary — it's the actual regional median for July, so a listing that's already crossed it has outlasted half the market. Any one of these signs on its own is worth a closer look. A few of them together on the same listing is usually where the real negotiating room is — far more reliably than "inventory is high" on its own. A home sitting past 30 days and priced above its neighbours isn't a red flag to avoid — it's a seller who's ready to see an offer and start negotiating.

Don't let cosmetic issues scare you off, either. A dated kitchen or worn flooring is usually a paint-and-updates job, not a structural one — and it's often exactly why a home that should have sold is still sitting, which works in your favour at the negotiating table.

Not every property type is softening the same way

The clearest evidence of where buyer leverage actually sits isn't the pricing trend — it's how each property type is trading right now. Three numbers tell that story for any listing: the sales-to-new-listings ratio (CREA considers 45-65% balanced), months of inventory, and median days on market.

Apartments and condos show the clearest sign of real buyer leverage of any property type. A sales-to-listings ratio of 32.6% is well below the balanced range, inventory has climbed to 6.7 months, and the median condo listing is taking 40 days to sell — longer than any other type. Average condo prices are down close to 10% from a year ago. Worth noting: the underlying benchmark price ticked up slightly over the past month, which may reflect a shift in which condos are selling rather than a genuine reversal — but every other signal in this segment still favours buyers.

Townhouses tell a different story. Sales activity is actually up nearly 20% from last July — more townhomes are changing hands — but they're taking a median of 38 days to sell, and average prices are down about 9% year-over-year. More activity paired with still-soft pricing is its own kind of opportunity for buyers.

Single-family homes remain the tightest segment of the three: a 45.7 ratio sits right at the edge of balanced, days on market are the shortest at 29, and inventory relative to sales is the lowest. This is where buyers are likely to face the most competition this fall.

Leverage also depends on where you're shopping

Property type isn't the only variable — municipality matters just as much, and the gap between neighbouring markets is bigger than you might expect:

St. Thomas stands out as the tightest market in the region — a 57.4 sales-to-listings ratio, just 3.2 months of inventory, and homes moving in an average of 27.5 days. That's a meaningfully different market than London, which sits below the balanced threshold at 41.8, with homes typically taking a month to sell. Elgin County, outside the city of St. Thomas, is the most buyer-favouring area in the region. Middlesex County and Strathroy-Caradoc fall in between, though both are smaller markets — 40 and 27 sales in July, respectively — so their ratios can swing more from month to month than London's or St. Thomas's.

It's not even uniform within London itself. North London tends to see hotter competition, while South and East London are generally where buyers find more room to negotiate. And if you're set on the St. Thomas area but finding it tight, towns just outside it — Aylmer, Dutton, West Lorne — are still an easy commute and tend to be more buyer-friendly than St. Thomas proper.

The takeaway: a buyer working with regional averages alone could easily misjudge their actual position. Someone shopping in St. Thomas is operating in a noticeably tighter market than someone shopping in London or Elgin County, regardless of what the combined LSTAR numbers say.

Affordability versus competition below $450,000

There's a tension worth watching at the lower end of the market. While higher-priced or less turnkey listings are sitting longer across the region, well-presented, move-in-ready homes under $450,000 appear to be behaving differently — drawing faster interest from affordability-focused buyers who are priced out of higher segments. If that pattern holds locally, it means the "more inventory equals more leverage" logic can break down entirely at the entry-level price point, even while it holds true elsewhere in the market.

What fall buyers should do

• Compare months of inventory by property type and municipality, not just the regional average
• Study a listing's days on market and price history, not just the current asking price
• Watch for recent price reductions and expired-then-relisted homes
• Keep financing pre-approval and deposit funds ready so you can move when the right listing appears
• Negotiate on terms — closing date, inclusions, conditions — not just price
• Don't assume every seller is equally motivated; some listings have far more room than others

What sellers should expect

Sellers in apartments, townhouses, and higher-inventory communities should expect more scrutiny this fall, not less. Accurate pricing — based on your area and your home's actual features, not last year's numbers — matters more than waiting for the fall market to get busier on its own. Beyond price, presentation does real work: cleaning, curb appeal, and fresh paint are small investments that make a measurable difference in how fast a home sells and how close it comes to asking. A home priced and presented for the market that actually exists is the one most likely to avoid becoming the next "stale listing" buyers are targeting for leverage.

The bottom line

Southwestern Ontario has more inventory than it's had in years, but that doesn't translate into equal leverage for every buyer. This fall favours buyers who look beyond the regional averages — checking days on market, price history, property type, and even which part of town they're shopping in — and sellers who are realistic about the market that actually exists, not the one the headlines describe.

Sales, inventory, and pricing figures sourced from LSTAR (London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS®), July 2026 Home Sales Update.